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| [Objects in mirror may be closer than they appear...] |
Just to be clear, statistician Nate Silver is not saying Barack Obama is going to run away with the election next Tuesday. On the contrary, it will likely be a very close race or, more precisely, a series of very close races in half-a-dozen or so crucial swing states. What Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight are saying is that the probability that Barack Obama is going to win is about 80%.
Silver is not saying the President going to get 80% of the vote. He's saying only that there's an 80% chance the President will win. One would have to be deliberately obtuse or completely ignorant of statistics not to understand that. So hold on to your hats, it's going to be a nail-biter, but it's 80/20 Obama gets re-elected.
